Volume Changes from 2019 to 2023 Now Accurately Tracked: But What’s to Come?
In a first for the glazing industry, the newly released uPVC Fenestration Market Statistics Report from Keystone Market Research has been able to offer crucial insights into how the market's top-level volume demand has evolved over the past few turbulent years. In October's edition of Glass Times, Charlotte Hawkes, the company’s Director, discusses how by accurately quantifying the impacts of the pandemic, the report sheds light on how the industry has adjusted and where it may be headed next.
2020: Initial Decline
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the uPVC fenestration market in 2020, with volumes dropping by 12.5%. Supply chain disruptions and decreased construction activity due to lockdowns and economic uncertainty caused many projects to be delayed or cancelled.
2021: A Sharp Rebound
In contrast, we all witnessed the remarkable rebound in market volumes that 2021 brought, with demand rising by 29%. This surge was driven by a shift in consumer behaviour, as households redirected their spending from travel and leisure activities to home improvement projects. The fenestration industry benefitted from this trend, with many homeowners investing in renovations, extensions, and upgrades during the prolonged periods at home.
2022: Market Correction and Value Peak
Following 2021's surge, the market began correcting itself in 2022 with an 8.5% decrease in volume. However, this did not reflect a decline in market strength—value actually grew by 10.6%, reaching its highest peak. This outcome can be attributed to a number of things, including continuing high demand and shortages driving up prices and a shift toward higher-value product specifications and premium offerings.
2023: Normalisation Post-Pandemic
In 2023, the market continued to decline in volume, dropping by another 9%. The value of demand also decreased by 10%, signalling a normalisation of demand levels after the exceptional highs of the pandemic years. Compared to the last stable pre-pandemic year of 2019, the 2023 volume was 6% lower. However, if we consider the cumulative volume for the years 2020-2023, the market only saw a marginal decrease of 0.6% overall compared to a stabilised scenario, indicating that the pandemic’s impact on demand has now largely been accounted for.
2024 and Beyond: Modest Growth Ahead
Despite the removal of the pandemic adjustments, 2024 is proving challenging, with political uncertainty, a subdued housing market, and inflationary pressures affecting homeowners' spending. Based on an analysis of economic indicators and wider construction market forecasts, Keystone is forecasting a 5.8% decline in volume at the fabricated products level for 2024, with a slight stabilisation expected in 2025 and modest growth projected for 2026. Value is expected to perform slightly better, reflecting the continuing shift toward higher-value product specifications and varied performance across different market segments.
As the market stabilises post-pandemic, our Autumn consumer report will provide further insights into homeowners' spending intentions for 2025, offering a glimpse of potential positive uplift compared to the current year. For a comprehensive view of the market's trajectory over the past five years, and volume and value forecasts to 2026 for extrusion, fabricated products, and installation, you can purchase the full report at www.keystonemr.co.uk/marketreports.
